How many English readers are there in the world? No telling. But there are estimates of how many people can speak English as either a first or second language. David Crystal, a British linguist, estimates that non-native English speakers outnumber native speakers 3 to 1. With estimates of native speakers at over 400 million, non-native speakers, therefore, number over 1.2 billion. The grand total is over 1.6 billion. Some experts estimate as high as 2 billion.
For authors and publishers, these statistics are an eye-opener. Do you want to exploit the New Zealand book market or the Indian book market? The Australian book market or the Pakistani book market? Again, we don’t know the literacy rate of the English speakers (as a second language), but we can probably assume that it’s higher than the local language literacy rate in many underdeveloped countries; the English speakers are perhaps more likely to be educated. In any event, the worldwide literacy rate is now about 85%, higher than you might have guessed.
You can hardly overestimate the Wow! factor in the size of the potential English-language book markets abroad. The question is, how do you reach such markets?
The traditional way has been to farm out the copyrights to foreign publishers. This has been done in the past for a small fraction of printed books to a small number of additional countries for each book. But the world has changed. Easy worldwide distribution is now possible via digital books. No local publisher is needed. But how?
Fortunately, the iOS (Apple) and Android operating systems for smartphones and tablets were invented in the US and are the most widely used in the world. The US-led consortium has set the standards for ebook formats too. Consequently, English-speaking customers abroad can buy ebooks on Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, and the like and read them via ebook-reader apps (e.g., Amazon reader app).
The question is, does this ebook avenue fully penetrate the international book markets? How many people in the US have an Amazon account? How many people in Pakistan have an Amazon account? Likely a smaller fraction. Let’s face it, it seems that only a fraction of the total potential ebook customers worldwide has an online bookstore account.
Apple Apple’s ebook sales are tied in with its app sales, and all its sales are tied to its devices via iTunes and the Apple Store. It’s a proprietary system. For Apple, the potential ebook market is theoretically 100% of the device market. Yet the ebook system (catalog) is separate from the app system (catalog), even though they are both in iTunes (Apple Store).
Android For Google Android, ebook sales are tied in with its app sales, and all its sales are tied to Android devices. Yet the device manufacturers are separate business entities and are not necessarily tied to Google. You find Android apps and ebooks in Google Play, but the ebooks are in a separate catalog.
Thus the potential digital book market is only a fraction of the device market, probably a small fraction, particularly abroad. You have to have a Google account to get Android apps (Google ebook sales are weak) and an Apple account to get Apple apps (Apple ebook sales are weak), but many people have an additional Amazon (or another online bookstore) account to get an ebook.
Now stay with me. Don’t fall asleep. Could it be that books in an app format (i.e., bookapps) might sell better than books in an ebook format? It’s my conclusion that ebooks are distinctly separate from bookapps. Apps are tied to devices much more tightly, and bookapps have larger potential sales worldwide than books in an ebook format.
The startling news for authors and publishers is that digital books (in various formats) have expanded the market for books in English by an estimated 300% (and for books from the US by 700%). The even more startling news is that to reach the entire market is much easier and less expensive than the traditional way (for printed books). Indeed, it’s feasible for very small publishers to do so. And the even more-than-that startling news is that independent publishers have a huge advantage over traditional publishers.
What’s the advantage? Independent publishers can profitably publish bookapps. But bookapps typically sell for less; traditional publishers cannot sell bookapps so cheaply. Think of all that corporate overhead.
Therefore, it seems to me that the ultimate future for books is as bookapps, not ebooks. Although there are many reasons for this beyond the demographics, nonetheless the demographics are compelling too. Everyone with a smartphone has instant access to apps and knows how to buy and use apps. Not every smartphone user has instant access to ebooks or can afford them.
Another book format of the future is a webbook. That is, a book that’s a website, and the website is the book, nothing more. The difference between bookapps and webbooks is that an author/publisher sells bookapps, and bookapps appear in an app catalog for sale (e.g., Google Play). In contrast, an author/publisher publishes webbooks free to readers, makes money by integrating affiliate advertising, is not limited by any other entity (e.g., Apple or Google), and keeps more of the revenue.
But enough about concepts for future publishing. This blog will get into the details in future posts. And it’s the details that will make you successful.
So we’ve seen the demographics on English speakers. Let’s look at the cell phone demographics. According to industry estimates over four billion people now have cell phones. Astounding! About two billion of those are smartphones. In a few more years, there will be five billion smartphone users. Combine the English-speaker demographics with the estimates of the numbers of smartphone users together with the already well-established digital book market, and you’re staring at a rising tsunami of English-language publishing opportunities beyond the imagination. You are the deer staring into the headlights.
Are you ready?